Sensational media, social media mask the data from the FBI. We are not being taken over by a swarm of violent criminals. It’s time to pay attention to where we are getting our information
MY GRANDMOTHER had a peculiar saying when she wanted to know something: “Answer me this….”
So, answer me this: Is the crime rate in the United States increasing?
Almost 80 percent of citizens, according to a recent survey, say it is…in a dramatic fashion.
Headlines above “fact-filled” stories, created by large-lunged politicians with political agendas, and conspiracy theorists spreading the latest self-serving rumor, tell us crime is rampant, and totally out of control in major cities run by opposing party leaders. Isolated incidents involving illegal immigrants lead conservative podcasts and are top-of the-page stories on rightwing social media sites.
Reality check: According to FBI statistics, crime in the United States has declined significantly over the last year, contradicting a widespread perception that law-breaking and violence are on the rise with, you know, “Liberal Joe” Biden in the White House.
A December Gallup poll found that 77 percent of Americans believe crime rates are worsening; they are mistaken…double dead-dog wrong!
The FBI data, which compares crime rates in the third quarter of 2023 to the same period last year, “found violent crime dropped eight percent, while property crime fell more than six percent to what would be its lowest level in more than 60 years,” according to criminologist and crime data specialist Jeff Asher, who deciphered the FBI numbers.
Murder plummeted in the United States in 2023 at one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded, Asher found, and every category of major crime except auto theft declined.
Here’s the rub: Reports show 92 percent of Republicans, 78 percent of independents and 58 percent of Democrats believe crime is rising, the Gallup survey shows.
Psychologists refer to such thinking as “conditioned reflex”; Americans have been conditioned through repetitive streams of disinformation, and are mentally unable to counter the idea “that crime is rising,” one crime statistic expert said. “It’s just an overwhelming number of news media stories and viral videos — … social media is playing a role.”
The FBI’s quarterly numbers cover about “78 percent of the U.S. population and don’t give as full a picture as the more comprehensive annual report the FBI puts out once a year,” Asher said. But based on history, he noted, the quarterly reports in the past have been mirrored fairly close to the annual ones.
According to several news articles, the most recent annual report, released in October, covered 94 percent of the country and found violent crime in 2022 fell back to pre-pandemic levels, with murder dropping 6.1 percent.
A separate database of murder in big cities which found that murder is down 12.7 percent this year, after rising during the pandemic. For example, Detroit is on pace to have the fewest murders since 1966; Baltimore and St Louis are on track to post the fewest murders in each city in nearly a decade.(A few cities, including Memphis and Washington D.C., are still seeing increases in their murder rates.)
Hardly a day goes by without a video of a “flash mob” retail smash-and-grab event, but while those events make for interesting head-shaking videos, when added into the overall crime data, incidents of crime is down.
SO, WHY ARE Americans’ perceptions about crime so different from the apparent reality? Simple answer: There is a measure of partisanship at work, with Republicans being more susceptible to believe crime is increasing while Democrats hold the White House; that theory holes that if the reverse4 were true, the beliefs for each would also switch.
The problem? Depends on the type of media the individuals follow.
Chalk it up to selective assimilation of the news and general confab on social media. Conservative sites love to lead with a crime story perpetrated by an illegal migrant; progressive sites lead with mass shootings or voter fraud indictments, etc. Analysts say the natural tendency of the news media to highlight disturbing crime stories — and the tendency of those stories to go viral on social media — presents a false but persuasive picture.
Fifty years ago, in newspapers and TV newscasts, there was a standard motto on what story was designated “top news of the day”: “If it bleeds, it leads.” A shooting, car wreck with fatalities, or horrid natural disaster with fatalities always grabbed the top news spot.
Now, today, more people tend to believe social media reports even when they are notoriously slanted.
It is time – no, past time – that people start to think and do research on items that affect this country and, therefore, affect us all on a personal level.
We all need to work harder to separate truth from fiction, “agenda” news from reality.
George Smith views the world from the back porch Bedspring Ridge, a dogtrot house he built in Sutton, Arkansas on old family land on a spot where his great-grandfather’s house once stood. There he lives and opines with his wife BobbieJean and a rescue dog, “Li’l Dawg.” A former newspaper reporter, editor and publisher, he has a master’s degree in business, is a retired director for a global technology company, has been a business owner, student of government and the behavior of politicians. He has been a college instructor, national motivational speaker, community development and festival development consultant and is a published author.