SOME QUICK THOUGHTS on the Pennsylvania Primary this week…
In Chester County, where I live, almost 9,000 more Democrats than Republicans turned out. At most polling places Democrats had a strong presence with signs and information tables while Republicans were absent in many. Is that a sign there is little Republican enthusiasm for the party as it’s constituted today? Who knows, but the difference between the two parties on election day in our county was noticeable.
From the rumor mill….Is that possible lack of enthusiasm within the local Republican Party showing up in the bank account? Word is some printed mailings were paid for but never mailed because there wasn’t enough money for postage. Word also is Republicans are considering going all-internet as opposed to having a strong ground game. Is that local or could state and county GOP organizations starting to feel the impact of the Republican National Committee take-over by Trump? Funds that would have filtered down to states and counties now are being directed to Trump’s campaign and his legal bills.
Interesting numbers…from the PA Republican Primary where Donald Trump got 788,83 votes, and Nikki Haley, who withdrew weeks ago, got 156,539. That could be significant. In 2020 Joe Biden won Pennsylvania by 80,555. No doubt some of those Haley voters will slide back to Trump come November, but when you look at the 2020 margins it would not take many of them to make a difference. Of course, no one knows yet what the impact of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his nonsensical campaign will be, but pundits are speculating he might actually be a place for disaffected Republicans as opposed to disaffected Democrats. Will be interesting to watch.
An odd strategy? According to most PA pundits State Rep. Ryan Bazzarro was an odds-on favorite to win the state treasurer race and face off against incumbent Republican Stacy Garrity. Bazzarro had the most endorsements, including one from the State Democratic Committee. But, when the votes were counted it was not Bazzarro making a victory speech, but his Democrat opponent Erin McClelland, a substance abuse counselor and small business owner.
In the runup to the primary Bazzarro focused attack ads against Garrity as if it already were the general election. The ads painted her as a radical Trumper. Some of those ads didn’t stand up to fact-checking. Meanwhile, McClelland was pushing hard on issues, pointing out why she should be the Democratic nominee. At one point, responding to the Bazzarro-Garrity attacks and counter-attacks, McClelland said she was campaigning to be the “adult in the room.”
The numbers are not in yet for the male/female break-down of the vote, but my suspicion is that Bazzarro may well have been seen by women as being too presumptious by ignoring McClelland and focusing on Garrity. Message? Maybe by running on issues rather than attacks McClelland was, in voters’ eyes, the adult in the room.
Do ads make a difference? There was a time in the five-candidate Democratic race for attorney-general that some pundits were saying that Jared Solomon, probably the most blue-collar candidate in the race, had a chance to become the nominee against a strong field. But, when the votes were counted he finished dead last. Eugene DePasquale, former two-term state auditor-general, won going away with 35.6 percent of the vote. Jack Stollsteimer, current Delaware County district attorney, was second with 20.3 percent of the vote.
What happened? I wrote a few days ago that Solomon ran one of the most cringe-worthy ads I’ve seen in decades of being around campaigns. It featured his mother gushing over her son, with Jared gushing back. Jared was raised by his single mother and this isn’t a knock on motherly love or pride, but the ad was just awful. His other ads seemed to be focused on two issues – the NRA giving him an F and pro-abortion groups giving him an A. He never seemed to break out of the pack. I don’t know who was calling the shots on his campaign, but it may well stand as a testimony as to how NOT to run one.
Final thought…You can’t take one primary, in which most candidates for both parties ran unopposed, as predictive. But looking at the numbers you have to wonder if Trump-fatigue is starting to set in with a good chunk of Republicans. If that is the case it might also be safe to say that if that’s the case, very few independents would be leaning toward the Republicans.
Regardless of what the numbers may or may not be indicating in one state’s primary, Democrats need to run as if they were 100,000 votes behind in every race. Too much is at stake to be over-confident. And a lot can happen between now and November…but all in all, a good day for Dems in our county and state-wide…
Rich Heiland, has been a reporter, editor, publisher/general manager at daily papers in Texas, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio and New Hampshire. He was part of a Pulitzer Prize-winning team at the Xenia Daily (OH) Daily Gazette, a National Newspaper Association Columnist of the Year, and a recipient of the Molly Ivins First Amendment Award from the Walker County (TX) Democrat Club. He taught journalism at Western Illinois University and leadership and community development at Woodbury College in Vermont. Since 1995 he has operated an international consulting, public speaking and training business specializing in customer service, general management, leadership and staff development with major corporations, organizations, and government. Semi-retired, he and his wife live in West Chester, PA. He can be reached at heilandrich1@gmail.com.