Do the HAMAS attacks within Gaza and on Israeli make any sense? in terms of the future of Gaza, no. In terms of an alliance with nations like Iran and Russia and the pursuit of a “central war” against all western nations and societies, it makes all the sense in the world.
IF YOU HAVE been blessed or cursed with being a writer, one thing is true. You cannot not do it. So, with that in mind I’ve finally been able to sit myself down at the keyboard and make some observations about what is going on in the Middle East.
First – a note to all sides. I am not going to comment on the positions of either side in this. I abhor the violence and loss of life. Yes, HAMAS is a sub-human terrorist group. Yes, Israel has a right to defend itself.
What I have been looking at is what I think this really is all about. If that sounds a tad pompous, it’s not my intent. I always have been fascinated by history and politics, particularly geo-politics.
That’s how I am approaching this post. Geo-politics are important because almost every major conflict in recorded history occurred because of a series of seemingly unrelated ripples, and the resolution of those conflicts often created ripples that led to the next round of conflicts. Yet, most of us don’t see those ripples. Either we haven’t been taught how to look for them or, frankly, we are too busy trying to get by, raise a family, stay healthy – whatever – to delve into it.
But it’s important, I think, to look at what just happened in a broad and as much as possible in as unemotional way as we can.
The big question is “Why did HAMAS choose to unleash its lethal attacks in Gaza and against Israel on Oct. 7?”
Most of the people I talk to, and see on social media, seem a bit baffled by that. Surely, they observe, HAMAS had to know that retaliation from Israel would be swift and savage and Gaza would be destroyed. If your real cause is home rule, why would you set up the destruction of that which you say you want control over?
The obvious answer is – that is not what it is about. There are layers to this and whether Gaza exists is almost beside the point. So, what is it?
In my opinion, that of an old geezer sitting in a small town in Southeast Pennsylvania, is this:
HAMAS is acting in concert with other nations – primarily Iran and Russia – to create instability in western nations, which includes the US and NATO nations in Europe.
My opinion starts with what I think is a historical reality. Very few revolutions in history have ended in a fashion that truly benefits the vast array of people below the top. The people may have been critical to the success of the revolution, but once its goals have been met, the people no longer matter. In fact, they may become a nuisance.
When you look at movements like HAMAS it helps to accept that at the top is the quest for power and wealth. That quest may be disguised in rhetoric about the people, about religious righteous and a mess of other high-sounding words. But bottom line, it’s usually about power and personal gain.
That is why HAMAS can launch attacks that inevitably lead to the suffering and deaths of so many of the people it alleges to stand for. The leadership of HAMAS does not care.
The ultimate end of this, if you follow the breadcrumbs to Iran, Russia and some other Middle Eastern nations and terrorists, groups, is to sow unrest. It’s impossible to go into all this so I am posting links at the bottom if you want a deeper dive into it.
But here is a thumbnail look at how it all ties in, using those three links and others as source material.
LET’S START WITH Iran. There is no other nation in the Middle East as fervently anti-west as Iran. From that position Iran has forged political and economic relations with Russia, where Vladimir Putin is attempting to reinstate the old USSR, with the invasion of Ukraine as the first step. Putin’s ultimate goal is to weaken the North Atlantic Treaty Organization so he can realize at least some of that dream.
Iran and Russia have been creating ever-stronger military bonds. Since the 1990s Iran has become more and more dependent on Russian engineering and actual weapons when it comes to more high-tech arms. That is less so right at this moment because of Russia’s needs in its invasion of Ukraine but that is at the situational, not the policy, level.
Economically Russia and Iran have competed against each other when it comes to oil. But, in other areas they are starting to make connections. In an under-the-radar story in Reuters back in June, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk told the state TASS agency in an interview that talks (on a trade pact) between the Eurasian Economic Union – which comprises Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia – and Iran are in their final stages.
Russian-Iranian commodity turnover rose 20 percent in 2022, according to government data cited by Reuters, two-thirds the overall growth rate Moscow saw with China, another key partner with whom Russia has expanded political and economic alliance in the past two years .
Uh, Gaza? Here’s the tie. Both Russia and Iran see creating instability in the United States as key to their goals. Russia wants to win in Ukraine and move on to other adventures; Iran, along with some other Middle Eastern states, wants to continue the Holocaust with the total annihilation of the Jewish people and elimination of Iran. HAMAS? It wants the same thing Iran does, but its leaders also want their share of the loot. As its part in this Iran is the major provider of arms and cash to HAMAS.
IF THE HAMAS attack on Gaza was driven by a desire, working with Iran and Russia, to create instability in the United States, and by extension the Free World, what would that look like?
You don’t have to look far to see the answer. It would look a lot like what we have seen out of the Republican Party over the past decade and could easily foresee should that party ever gain control of the White House and both houses of Congress.
There already is a strong and vocal bloc in the Republican Party that wants to abandon the war in Ukraine and move back to positions of US isolationism we have seen in the past. (And we have seen that never has ended well in the long term.) That plays into Putin’s plan.
In the wake of Gaza the polarization of pro-Isreal and pro-Palestinian groups and individuals within the US has reached the point where any sort of calm discussion is impossible. It also has worked to weaken President Joe Biden if you listen to what some Republicans are saying.
One Republican, reacting to the recent GOP debate, said he remained firmly with former President Donald Trump because “with Trump we had four years of peace.” We did not, but the greater implication was that somehow wars abroad are Joe Biden’s fault. It’s obvious that no US president, even Abe Lincoln and FDR could we raise them from the dead, could have stopped Putin’s invasion or the HAMAS action in Gaza.
There also was a headline this morning that White House advisors are warning Biden that his support for Israel is creating a serious rift with voters of Arab descent. That’s true. One was quoted on a news show this week as saying Arabs will not vote for Biden. Asked if he realized that could lead to a return of Trump, the person said “it’s not about Trump. It is about making a statement.” Which, of course, makes it all about Trump if it tips things at the polls.
It’s obvious that if Republicans could gain control it would lead to the weakening of NATO and our basically telling the world “go it on your own.” But wait, you might say. Republicans are supporting Israel. Yes, they are. But again, if you follow the ripples out to the ultimate goals of the players, that doesn’t matter in the long term.
Add all this up and you can see why Edward Price (one of the links below) notes that Gaza, Ukraine, Russia, Iran all tie together and that it really is about “the central war.”
Do what you want with this long slog. I guess I come at it having learned, as a journalist and history/political science major, that the old saying “nothing is as it seems” has a lot of truth in it. The bad guys of the world are hoping with all their hearts that most Americans won’t go beyond the surface in search of reality a deeper story. If history is an indicator, they may well have their hopes realized.
https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2023/may/18/iran-russia-burgeoning-military-ties
https://www.barrons.com/articles/iran-russia-world-war-iii-biden-speech-a0a17a7c
Rich Heiland, has been a reporter, editor, publisher/general manager at daily papers in Texas, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio and New Hampshire. He was part of a Pulitzer Prize-winning team at the Xenia Daily (OH) Daily Gazette, a National Newspaper Association Columnist of the Year, and a recipient of the Molly Ivins First Amendment Award from the Walker County (TX) Democrat Club. He taught journalism at Western Illinois University and leadership and community development at Woodbury College in Vermont. Since 1995 he has operated an international consulting, public speaking and training business specializing in customer service, general management, leadership and staff development with major corporations, organizations, and government. Semi-retired, he lives with his wife in West Chester, PA. He can be reached at heilandrich1@gmail.com.
Oh, Richard, Thank you for writing this. I hope you find a larger voice for your words. If only more people understood this. Far too many are not seeing what is playing out in front of us or relating it to history. Sadly, many don’t know history, including our so-called “leaders.” Unless there is a seismic shift in the next few months, the states with large Muslim populations–states Biden carried in the last election–will not support him in 2024. And, if we return to another 4 years of what we witnessed, I fear for our country and all of the West. And, we may not even reach the next election. What you are spelling out is moving very quickly and instability is the key to the success of this group of calculating and determined adversaries. We’re sitting on a fault line that grows more volatile by the day. God help us.