When you take out Trump, that leaves only DeSantis and Haley and if either of them is the nominee, things change for the Biden camp
WHAT A MESS!
There are other words to describe what’s roiling around out there when it comes to the 2024 presidential race. But, alas, I am trying to keep this reasonably clean so I can‘t use them.
There are polls flying around that are fairly worthless given the general election is not for year. They are worthless because the landscape is changing weekly making the questions asked obsolete before the poll can even land.
The landscape is cluttered up with third parties, wannabes running with or without parties and a mess of issues that polarize. We are beset with ugly international conditions that already are being abused to gain some kind of future electoral advantage.
But here’s the thing. This mess is real in the sense that events are swirling around in a way that there will be some sorting out to be done in 2024 and what seems logical in 2023 may well be seen as illogical in a few months.
What do I mean by that? Let’s start with the assumed face-off between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. So many of the polls are based on that eventuality but I personally do not see any way that happens. And if it doesn’t, the impact on who may or may not, should or should not, run for the presidency in 2024 is significant.
Let’s start with Trump. From everything I can see it is likely that two of his four trials will be completed and a verdict in prior to November 2024. The problem for Republicans is – will verdicts and sentencing be done prior to the Republican convention in August 2024? Results of any of his trials certainly will not be in before most, if not all, of the Republican primary dates have come and gone.
So, what are the Republicans to do? It is becoming increasingly clear Republicans across the country are tired of losing. That they have been losing is on them for turning their party over to Trump. Will they see that continuing on with Trump dooms them, particularly if he is their nominee and the sentencing is done before November 2024?
There is more here. It is becoming increasingly clear that Trump may be dealing with some mental health, and physical health, issues that go beyond his obvious narcissism and his pathological lying. Right now the big issue for Republicans, and even a lot of Democrats, around Biden, is his age. In a race with Trump that is not a weapon. Biden is not that much older than Trump and Trump’s growing signs of instability, even cognitive awareness, pretty much make the race a toss-up on that issue.
But, what if…..Republicans wake up early next year and from the Republican National Committee on down, thank Trump for his service but announce the party is moving on and urges its voters to settle on someone else. At this point it seems pretty likely that race would come down Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is all the bad things Trump is, but who is smarter and even more of a threat to Democracy; and, Nikki Haley.
Haley, former governor of South Carolina, former ambassador to the United Nations, most likely would check some boxes for moderate Republicans and Independents that DeSantis does not. While anyone seriously supporting a woman’s right to choose would never buy what Haley is selling, she has staked out a position on abortion that, compared with other GOP candidates, can be sold as “moderate.”
In addition, she is a woman of mixed ethnic descent. She has been a governor and her stint at UN ambassador gives her some international credentials. She also is an energetic campaigner.
If, and this is a big “if,” Republicans find the nerve to stand up to Trump and move him aside, my betting money would be on Haley in a Haley-DeSantis face-off. Yes, I am discounting the other Republicans in the race. Vivek Ganapathy Ramaswamy is a whack job and former NJ Gov. Chris Christi is valuable for constantly pointing out Trump’s anchor-effect on the party, but Christie can’t win in today’s Republican Party.
LET’S KEEP PROJECTING – DeSantis and Haley go into the Republican convention fairly close in primary wins and delegates. But, over three days the ground, I think, will shift toward Haley and she will emerge as the candidate. The next question is, who will her running mate be? This is where it gets tricky for Haley because if she wants any significant part of the Trump base to stay with her, she has to choose someone who either is solidly in that base – and that list of names is pretty scary – or she has to find someone who would accept the VP spot who would not totally alienate the base, but also would keep the door open to draw in some independents.
But, again, let’s assume Haley’s team does diligent research and finds someone. Odds are it would be a male. Odds are it would be someone no older than their early 50s. And make no mistake, age will matter. Haley is 51. If she runs with someone in their 50s, or better yet younger, then suddenly age becomes a huge campaign issue.
The concern about Biden’s age is out there. Locally here in Chester County, PA several folks who canvassed for local Democrats said conversations with voters, that went beyond the local, almost always had to do with Biden’s age. Polls show a lot of concern among Democrats and when you narrow it down to younger voters the concern goes beyond him living out his term. Many younger voters are tired of only have candidate choices from among a list of folks as old, or older, than their parents and in some cases grandparents.
If Trump is the candidate, age does not work against Biden. Against Haley, or DeSantis, who is 44, it does work against him. You can bet if Haley or DeSantis are the Republican nominee it will be at the heart of the campaign. And, the target will be Kamala Harris. It will be interesting to see how Republicans play this. A large part of the Trump base is racist, pure and simple. But, Republicans can’t play the race card with their base if Haley is the candidate. Nor can they plan the gender card. Of course, with DeSantis as the nominee they could play race, ethnicity and gender to the hilt when it comes to a VP.
So, where is my mind wandering to? Maybe into Fantasyland, but I have some thoughts, for next time….
Rich Heiland, has been a reporter, editor, publisher/general manager at daily papers in Texas, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio and New Hampshire. He was part of a Pulitzer Prize-winning team at the Xenia Daily (OH) Daily Gazette, a National Newspaper Association Columnist of the Year, and a recipient of the Molly Ivins First Amendment Award from the Walker County (TX) Democrat Club. He taught journalism at Western Illinois University and leadership and community development at Woodbury College in Vermont. Since 1995 he has operated an international consulting, public speaking and training business specializing in customer service, general management, leadership and staff development with major corporations, organizations, and government. Semi-retired, he lives with his wife in West Chester, PA. He can be reached at heilandrich1@gmail.com.